An Electoral Opening for the GOP with Black Men?

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As a tie-in to my analysis of the results from the election a month ago (show link), I notice a trend that has cause some concern among some members of the left in the press.

In many states across the country this year, especially in certain swing states, the black vote, especially among black men,  was distinctly more favorable to the GOP than it had been during the Obama Era.

This has led some left-wing columnists at the Washington Post to worry about black men’s dedication to supporting the cause of black women.

This was even more notable in the case of the gubernatorial election in Georgia, where, according to CNN, as many as 11% of black men voted against a black female Democrat, Stacey Adams.

Needless to say, this has many on the left concerned that a key demographic could be getting won over by Trump and the GOP despite myriads of (misguided) claims of racism and support for white nationalism by those at more liberal news sources.

This is likely an outgrowth of support for conservative economic policies. The way I read it, many on the left are worried about them leaving the plantation and not being “down for the struggle,” especially given how the perceived prejudice from the President. This outreach, especially amongst the youth, worries them.

Given the worry by the left-wing press, I think a more vocal pursuit of the black vote, especially black men, by the GOP and Trump in 2020 could only behoove them. This could be especially fruitful as a strategy in swing states. They already received 13% of black men in 2016, and the voting bloc provided enough numbers in a few key states to allow for wins even a down year like this, and gave 11-12% overall. As Trump said in 2016, given past failures with Democrats in control, what do they have to lose?

Here are some results from exit polls for this past cycle for support from black men for the GOP in states that had a major statewide race. The two exit polls cited for the range of black male support are CNN’s and Fox News’. The black female and overall black votes are also cited in some cases.

Nationally: 11-12%

AZ: 28% for Ducey and 12% for McSally

CA: 11-14% for Cox among both genders

FL: 12-16% for Scott and 8-12% for DeSantis (3-18% for DeSantis and 7-9% for Scott from black women)

GA: 8-11% for Kemp

IN: 15-20% for Braun

KS: 17% for Kobach

MI: 11% for Schuette and 16% for James

MN: 12-15% for the top of the ticket Republican for Governor and Senate Special (both genders)

MO: ~8% for Hawley

NV: 23% for Laxalt (18% from black women) and 20% for Heller (18% from black women)

NJ: 13-19% for Hugin

OH: 16% for DeWine (11% from black women) and 13-14% for Renacci

PA: 14% for Wagner and 13% for Barletta

TN: 11% for Lee with both genders and 13% among women for Blackburn (11% for men)

TX: 13-17% for Cruz and 18-24% for Abbott

VA: 10-15% for Stewart

WI: 15% for Walker and Vukmir from both genders